2021年読売巨人軍開幕ベンチ入り野手考察

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やっほーおはあんず~

先日に引き続き、今日も現時点での開幕陣容を考察していきたいと思います。

第4回の今日は、開幕ベンチ編です。

 

ベンチ入り枠に関しては近年移り変わりが激しくなっていますが、今年も昨年同様1軍全体で31人が登録でき、うち26人がベンチ入りできるシステムで行われます。

この31から投手やレギュラーを引いた控え野手がだいたい9~10になって、そのうちベンチ入りするのが8~9という試合が多かったのが昨年でした。

数年前までは1軍の野手は基本全員ベンチ入りだったので、ベンチ外の野手が出る場合があるというのは変わってきた傾向と言えます。

ということで今回は、開幕のベンチに入ってきそうな10人くらいを考察していきたいと思います。

 

まず前提として、スタメンのときと同様に、来日目処が立っていない新外国人の2人は開幕時点でいないものとして考えます。2人は来日して隔離期間を経ると最短でも2月末になってしまうので、無理に開幕に合わせなくてもといった感覚で、状態が上がってチームに不足が出たら1軍合流してもらえたらというイメージです。

まず10人の中で必須の捕手枠が2つ。現状大城がスタメンマスクを被る試合が多くなると思いますが、残りを順当に小林誠司と炭谷銀仁朗が埋めるのか、岸田が割り込んでくるのかの争いになるでしょう。

正直なところ、岸田に入ってもらうことによって、「打てる中堅レギュラー」「鉄壁のベテラン2番手」「次世代の若手3番手」という最高のバランスが完成します。



で、例年だと「じゃあ競争だ」ということでキャンプが始まるんですが、今年は小林と銀仁朗がキャンプS班スタート。2人はゆっくり焦らずやってくれという方針です。

かといって大城の地位が変わるわけでもないので、普通に行けばやはり大城、小林、銀仁朗の実績十分トリオが最有力。去年だと開幕戦は先発投手を全員登録する必要がないので、ここに保険で田中貴也が加わり、2日後抹消されました。

岸田をその扱いはもったいないので、アピール次第でルーキーの萩原にもチャンスがあるかもしれません。

 

他の一般野手だと、ひとまず増田大輝の代走枠は確定的。増田自身も内外野できるので、ここはポジションカウントせず、内野3人、外野3人くらいが残りで選ばれると思った方がいいです。

まず必須要件に挙げられるのが「代打の切り札」で、ここは亀井善行に任せたいところ。今年は例年以上に亀井に頑張ってスタメンで出てもらう必要がない布陣なので、完全に専念させるくらいのチームになりたいはずです。

もともと1打席の勝負強さがあって、昨年もチーム1位の代打成功率(.357)だったので、期待できるカードになるでしょう。

もう1枠は右で誰かほしいところで、候補は石川慎吾や中島宏之、ウィーラー辺りが有力。この中だと石川慎吾の成功率が、去年は一番高かったです。

というか、ナカジとウィーラーはそもそも代打に向いてない説が強く、ナカジは去年成功率.250だったものの、前年は0割台で不振の引き金に。ウィーラーは調子が悪い時期の代打が多かったにせよ昨年.143でした。

対左の分かりやすい候補としても、石川慎吾はどのみち入れておきたいところ。逆にウィーラーなんかは、スタメンの見込みがないのであれば1軍に置いておく理由がないシーズンになるんじゃないかと思います。



この辺りを消すと、残る枠が4~5。内野2~3人外野2人くらいのバランスになります。

まず選手名鑑を眺めたときに入れておきたくなるのが、若林晃弘です。一昨年のセカンドスタメン期間の印象で「守備にやや難あり」かと思いきや、サードは上手くファーストも無難で、昨年外野も本職より上手いレベルと判明。スイッチヒッターで左右関係なく一定の打率が見込め長打力もある。バント成功率は通算.875で、脚力も代走で十分使いものになる。正直1軍に置いておかない理由が分かりません。

残りの内野陣だと、北村、湯浅、香月辺りから入ってくる選手が何人いるか?といった感じに。それぞれアピールの方向は違いますが、現状だと二遊間を高いレベルで守れる湯浅はチャンスも多いと思います。また、北村は石川慎吾と代打を争う存在にもなります。

 

そして外野は誰が開幕スタメンを奪うか気になるところですが、普通に考えたら陽岱鋼、松原聖弥、重信慎之介からスタメンじゃない2人が控えに回る計算。

これらを踏まえて書き出すと、小林誠司、炭谷銀仁朗、湯浅大、増田大輝、中島宏之、若林晃弘、陽岱鋼、亀井善行、石川慎吾、重信慎之介で10人になります(ウィーラーと松原はスタメンと仮定)。

去年とほとんど変わっていない気もしますが、それで圧倒できた戦力+αなので、この状態が維持できている時点でアドバンテージになります。

ここにテームズとスモークを加えたときの舵取りが一番難しいと思いますが、巨大戦力になればなるほど、原監督の手腕も生きてくるでしょう。

じゃあね~また明日~

おつあんず~




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