2019年読売巨人軍ドラフト戦略考察&クジ運問題について

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ドラフト1位は堀田賢慎!2019年巨人軍ドラフト指名選手一覧

 

やっほーおはあんず~

いよいよ明日、1年ぶりのドラフト会議が行われます。

巨人は今日のスカウト会議で1位指名選手は決定したようですが、具体的な名前は明言されませんでした。

一応投手ではあるということなので、おそらく佐々木か奥川、名前としては森下も挙がっているっていう何の参考にもならない情報しかありませんが、報道の量なら奥川の方が有力に思われます。(佐々木って書いてるところもあるのでなんとも言えませんが)

いずれにせよ楽しみではありますが、上位を中心にどんな指名が展開されそうかを、現在のチーム編成を踏まえて考えていきましょう。



まずは現状の戦力がこちらです。

この後まだ野手の戦力外通告があると思いますが、現状所属している日本人登録の選手は以下のようになっています。(赤字は超主力級、青字は今季出場が多かった印象上位25名)

右投 左投 捕手 内野 外野
38 岩隈
37 中島 亀井
36 大竹
35
34
33 陽岱鋼
32 山口
野上
炭谷
31 澤村 坂本
30 菅野
田原
藤岡
高木
小林
29 鍵谷 立岡
28
27 宮國 池田
戸根
大城
田中貴
吉川大
26 桜井 中川
今村
田中俊
山本
若林
増田大
石川

重信

25 吉川尚 松原
24 古川
鍬原
田口 北村 村上
23 高橋 岸田 岡本
22
21 髙田
堀岡
大江 加藤
20 湯浅
19 直江
戸郷
横川 増田陸
松井
山下

(年齢は2020年3月31日時点)

だいたいこんな感じです。シーズン終盤は大きな入れ替えがなかったため、実質CSメンバー=今季の主力みたいな感じになってます。

何だかんだ外国人選手等でまかなえているポジションも多いので、今年のドラフトで「何が何でも即戦力で確保しないといけないポジション」というのはありません。

それでも確実になんとかしておく必要がある補強ポイントはいくつか浮かび上がっているので、そこを一つ一つ見ていきましょう。



投手・・・菅野に次ぐエース候補

今シーズンローテーションを1年通して守ったと言えるのは山口俊と菅野のみ。桜井は途中からローテに加わりましたが、終盤はやや息切れした登板も多く見受けられるようになったので、来年以降も無条件で指を折ることは出来ません。

左ではメルセデス、今村信貴、高橋優貴が先発として一定の成績を残しましたが、「将来エースになれるのか?」という点においてはノーと言わざるおえない状況です。

今シーズンあまり1軍で投げていない投手の中にも「将来のエース候補」がいないわけではないですが、投げていないわけなのであくまで皮算用の段階。

若手投手陣で絶対的なローテ投手がいない以上、今年のドラフトで誰かしら「ローテーションの柱」を担える存在を真っ先に確保するのは当然だと思われます。だから1位候補で3人の名前が挙がっているんですけどね?

 

中継ぎの方を見てみると、今シーズンは大竹や田口が先発からリリーフに転向したように、「いる人たちでまかなえる」部分があるので、こちらの即戦力がどうしても必要というわけではありません。

特に原さんが監督をやっている以上は「調子の良いやつをどんどん送り出す」ことになるため、少なくとも頭数さえ揃っていれば大きな問題はありません。

敢えて取りに行くのであれば、とにかく「ストレートが速いピッチャー」を希望します。中途半端なコントロールは要りません。

 

捕手・・・絶対的な頭数が不足

シーズン中のトレードで宇佐見を放出した関係で、現在支配下捕手が5人しかいません。

育成には3選手がいますが、怪我等があっても3軍までを健全に回すことを考えたら、少なくとも1人はどこかで指名しておく必要があります。それに加えて、大城が現状岡本に次ぐ1塁手の2番手相当であることを考えたら、育成含めて2人くらいは獲っても多すぎじゃありません。

また、年齢別の階層で見たところ、いわゆる「次世代の捕手」のカテゴリーが岸田一択の現状があります。

岸田がものになってくれればいいですが、そうならなかった場合かなり悲惨なことになる可能性があります。ドラフトでの即戦力捕手はその点において必要であり、現状一番評価が高いのはこの前名前が挙がっていた海野ってことなんでしょう。(フェイクの可能性もありますが)

また、特に今年は2順目の指名順位が遅いため、この時点で1位相当、あるいは2位上位レベルの選手は残っていないと考えるのが妥当です。

今年の優先順位が「何だかんだ毎年候補が出てくる投手<次いつ上位候補が来るか分からない捕手」であるならば、入札のクジを外した場合の1位指名で捕手ということは十分に考えられます。


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