読売巨人軍・選手年俸予想【2019→2020】

最終更新日

Comments: 82

→初めての方はこちら

やっほーおはあんず~

シーズンも全日程が終了したことなので、契約更改が始まる前にやってみたかったことをやってみたいと思います。

ということで今回は、読売巨人軍来季年俸予想です。

実際全選手の更改が終わったら、どのくらい合っていたかの答え合わせもしてみたいと思います。

(→実際の年俸と答え合わせはこちら



【前提】

・対象は2019年から2020年にかけて在籍予定の支配下登録選手

・年俸はスポーツ報知の推定を正解とする

・外国人選手、シーズン中トレード移籍選手は契約形態がよく分からんので除く

・オープン戦、ポストシーズン等の成績をマイナス方向には評価しない

 

<投手>

番号 選手名 今季年俸 予想年俸
11 山口俊 23000 35000
12 高橋優貴 1500 2800
15 澤村拓一 12150 12150
17 大竹寛 2625 3800
18 菅野智之 65000 65000
21 岩隈久志 5000 5000
23 野上亮磨 15000 15000
28 田口麗斗 7500 8000
29 鍬原拓也 1650 1600
30 宮國椋丞 2640 2500
31 畠世周 1920 1600
35 桜井俊貴 1000 2500
37 田原誠次 3600 3240
41 中川晧太 1900 7600
45 今村信貴 2600 3000
48 池田駿 1700 1400
50 戸根千明 1500 2250
53 髙田萌生 680 730
54 直江大輔 500 520
57 高木京介 500 2000
62 横川凱 500 540
64 大江竜聖 560 730
68 戸郷翔征 500 1000
95 堀岡隼人 420 550



山口俊 26試合15勝防御率2.91 23000万→35000万

今シーズンは投手3冠を獲得するなど、先発陣の柱として文句なしの成績。

普通に考えたらこれでも少ないくらいだが、去年2年契約を結んでいるため、それが年俸固定制だった場合は現状維持の可能性あり。

 

高橋優貴 18試合5勝防御率3.19 1500万→2800万

倍増いくかいかないか微妙なライン。近年のドラフト1位の投手では上々の成績だが、投球回数93回でシーズンの1/3は1軍にいなかったことを考慮すると、その手前止めが妥当か?

優勝祝儀+クライマックスでの好投を大きく評価されたら届いても不思議ではない。

 

澤村拓一 43試合2勝13H1S防御率2.61 12150万→12150万

成績は昨年から大きく向上したが、「登板数は微減(49→43)した点」「シーズンを通して1軍にいなかった点」「勝ちパターンで投げ続けたわけではない点」を考慮すると大幅増は見込めないか。

かといって下げる成績とも思えないので、ひとまず現状維持で予想。

 

大竹寛 32試合4勝8H防御率2.77 2625万→3800万

見た目の成績は移籍後最高レベルといっても差し支えないが、実質シーズン後半のみの稼働と投球回数26がどう影響するか?

前年からかなり下がっての今季年俸なので、若干の調整も込みでこの辺り。



菅野智之 22試合11勝防御率3.89 65000万→65000万

間違いなく上がることはないと思うが、下げるにしても「どこまで?」って話になる。

シーズン通して不調でありながら最低限の貢献とチーム成績を考えると、今年は維持でも問題ないのではないか?という判断。

 

岩隈久志 1軍登板無し 5000万→5000万

投手陣で一番読めない。5000万入団はまぁまぁ格安な気がしていたので、球団としてはそのままでも痛くもかゆくもないはず。

というか最初からこの金額で来年も契約する気だったまである。

 

野上亮磨 13試合1勝3H1S防御率3.50 15000万→15000万

3年契約の真っ最中なので、どうもこうもなく現状維持。

 

田口麗斗 55試合3勝14H1S防御率4.13 7500万→8000万

これまでの先発評価から中継ぎ評価になるので難しいところ。

見た感じだと7500万で妥当っぽい気もするが、シーズン後半で一気に登板を増やした結果なので、その分若干上乗せされると予想。

 

鍬原拓也 15試合2H防御率4.74 1650万→1600万

昨年が6試合登板の1勝で150万アップを勝ち取っていて、今年はそれよりも中継ぎとして数字を残してはいるが、貢献度的な意味ではちょっと下がるくらいになるか?



宮國椋丞 28試合3H防御率3.94 2640万→2500万

大きく上がる感じも下がる感じもしない印象。

去年が同じような登板機会で防御率1点台だったので、それで上がった分は若干下がるくらいか?

 

畠世周 5試合防御率6.89 1920万→1600万

プロ入り後最少の登板数で数字も残っていないのでダウン提示は避けられないか?

だいたい2割ダウンできりが良いこの辺で予想。

 

桜井俊貴 29試合8勝防御率4.32 1000万→2500万

先発ローテーションに定着して8勝を挙げる飛躍を遂げ、大幅増は確実。

ただし元の金額が安いのとシーズン終盤に大きく成績を落としたことからも、3倍までは行かないんじゃないかということでこの辺り。

 

田原誠次 25試合2勝5H防御率4.32 3600万→3240万

去年が同じくらいの登板数で防御率2点台にも関わらず現状維持だったので、そこからの防御率悪化を考えるとある程度のダウンは確実か。とりあえず1割減で予想。

 

中川皓太 67試合4勝17H16S防御率2.37 1900万→7600万

近年の傾向的に、その年大きく成績を上げた選手は一気に年俸も上げる可能性が高い。

成績と元の年俸的に3~4倍の提示で「想像以上の評価をしてもらった」までがテンプレか?

 

今村信貴 17試合3勝防御率4.08 2600万→3000万

このくらいは上がっても文句は言われないはず。

そもそも「チーム事情」によって開幕ローテを外れ、それ以降は先発で好投しても勝ちがつかない登板があったので、少なくともこの成績以上の評価はされると思われる。



池田駿 2試合防御率18.0 1700万→1400万

年齢的に中堅投手になってくるが、その中ではずば抜けて1軍登板が少なかった。

減額制限を超さない程度だとこの辺り。ただわざわざ厳しくする必要があるかは謎。

 

戸根千明 26試合8H防御率1.99 1500万→2250万

故障もあって登板数は伸びなかったが、間違いなくシーズン序盤のブルペンを支えた一人。

防御率もなんとか1点台でねじ込んできたので、1.5倍前後で予想。

 

髙田萌生 2試合防御率5.40 680万→730万

2軍ではしっかりローテーションを守って投げ続け、1軍にいる期間は去年より若干多かったので、その分だけ微増。

 

直江大輔 1軍登板無し 500万→520万

今年の湯浅の年俸が1年目からちょっと上がっているので、それに習ってちょっと上げてみる。

 

高木京介 55試合3勝10H防御率3.83 500万→2000万

500万スタートなのが話を非常にややこしくさせている。

本来だったらもうちょっと上げるべきだが、中川皓太を最大4倍で予想しているので、それ以上のパーセンテージアップは厳しい気がしてこの金額に。

 

横川凱 1軍登板無し 500万→540万

直江はイースタンデビューは果たしたものの初勝利とはならず。一方横川は初勝利までマークしているので、直江よりちょっと多めのご祝儀予想。

 

大江竜聖 8試合1H防御率6.75 560万→730万

開幕1軍を掴むなど、ある程度の期間1軍に居はしてるという意味でそれなりにアップ。

とりあえず髙田萌生に足並みを揃えてみた。



戸郷翔征 2試合1勝防御率2.08 500万→1000万

インパクトは強いが冷静に考えたら2試合投げただけで倍増もどうかと思う。

ただそのくらいでも文句はないレベルのインパクトだったので、とりあえず1000万の大台予想。

 

堀岡隼人 3試合防御率6.23 420万→550万

育成から支配下に上がった時点で500万は間違いなくいく。

1軍でも多少投げて2軍では大活躍のレベルだったので、もうちょっと上乗せで550万。

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