巨人軍公式ファンクラブ「トリプルヒーローゲーム」予想のコツ

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今シーズンから、読売巨人軍の公式ファンクラブにおいて、新たな機能が追加されました。

その名も「トリプルヒーローゲーム」

これは、巨人軍主催のホームゲーム開始前に、その日の試合で活躍する選手を予想。巨人が勝利し、予想が的中するとポイントが獲得できるというものです。

すでに何度か開催されており、なんとなくの傾向が分かってきたので、ここで一回まとめておきたいと思います。

 

そもそもこの「トリプルヒーローゲーム」における「活躍する選手」というのは、巨人軍が独自に算出している「WPA」という数値の上位3選手のことを指します。

しかし、我々が確認できるのは試合毎の上位5選手のランキングであり、以下の順位や具体的なポイントなどはわかりません。そのため、いくら自分が「この選手は活躍した」と思っても、これに入っていなければ意味がないわけです。

そしてこの「WPA」ですが、正直どんな基準で判定を出しているのかが謎です。まだ数試合の段階ですが、私の感覚とこのWPA上位5選手が一致していた試合はありません。ほぼ毎試合「え?その選手なの?」みたいになってます。

一応公式の説明では、

Q :WPAとは?A :各選手の勝利への貢献度を計る指標で、試合の中で選手ごとに異なる数値が出ます。
WPAは選手のプレーによって変動します。チームを勝利へ近づける好プレーをすればその選手のWPAはアップし、その逆のプレーをすればWPAはダウンします。
投手の例:WPAがアップするプレー(奪三振、併殺打、ピンチを無失点で切り抜けるなど)WPAがダウンするプレー(被安打、与四死球、暴投、登板時の失点など)
野手の例:WPAがアップするプレー(安打、盗塁、四球での出塁など)WPAがダウンするプレー(三振、チャンスでの凡退、盗塁死など)

なお、投手が打席に立って安打等を放った場合、WPAはアップします。
上記はあくまでも一例であり、WPAの評価対象となるのはすべてのプレーです。

という風になっていますが、数値が公開されていない以上何ポイントから上位で、どのポジションが有利なのかなども見当がつきません。

 

それでも大体の傾向はあるので、おススメの予想の仕方を紹介していきます。

・先発ピッチャー固定で入れる

このゲームは巨人が勝たないと意味がありません。つまり、「活躍しそうな選手」は「勝った場合活躍してそうな選手」と言い換えることができます。

であれば、先発投手を入れない理由がありません。先発が炎上して勝てる試合は限られてますし、そもそも巨人の先発投手は結構優秀です。

私の記憶の限りでは、今までの試合(4/23時点)で先発投手がランクインしなかった試合はありませんから、ここは外せません。

 

・坂本勇人or丸佳浩のどちらかを選択

上位打線を担い、守備もセンターラインを任されているこの2人は、かなりの確率で上位5選手に顔を出します。その日の先発投手や状態を見ながら、どちらかを入れておきましょう。

逆に言うと、この2人はどちらかでいいです。

というのも、打順が並んでしまっている関係で「両選手がそろってポイント上位の活躍をする」ということはあまりありません。

ほとんど「勇人がチャンスメイク→丸が決める」or「勇人が大事な場面で決める→丸の打席へ」のどちらかで進行しています。

私の感覚ですが、このWPAという数値は「チャンスメイク」や「殊勲打(先制・同点・逆転・勝ち越し)に絡まないプレー」は過小評価の傾向にあります。

上記2ケースだと、どちらかの選手はポイントが付きにくいことになります。このゲームは3人全的中じゃないと意味がないので、この2人をそろえて予想に含める必要性は薄いと考えています。

また、仮にこの2人+先発で予想が的中しても、その場合のポイントは少なくなる可能性が高いです。どうせならちょっとは効率も意識したいので、ここはどちらかを諦めましょう。



・中継ぎ・代打要因は外す

当たり前ですが、出場するかわからない選手を含めておく必要はありません。

もしかしたら菅野智之・澤村拓一・増田大輝のような中継ぎ投手や控え野手が入ってくるトリッキーなパターンもあるかもしれませんが、そういう試合自体数が少ないですし、その試合でさらにピンポイントで当てられるか?となるとかなり確率の低い話になってきます。

それでいてかつもらえるポイントにも上限があることを考えると、あまり深いことは考えずにシンプルな予想をしていくのがポイントだと思われます。

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